Overview of repercussions for Rojava (Northern Syria) following the July 19 “Tripartite Summit” in Tehran:
Russian state:
-Putin stated to press there are “a lot of questions” regarding Syria that have not been answered.
-Putin stated: “Syria’s future must be determined by Syrians themselves and without any dictation from the outside,” countering Erdogan’s threats. He encouraged Erdogan to follow the Astana peace process instead.
-Before the summit, a Russian delegation led by General Alexander Chaiko reportedly held a meeting with SDF and SAA commanders in Qamishlo. What was discussed is uncertain, but the meeting shows that the Russian state is including the SDF in its military plan as opposed to antagonizing it.
Iranian state:
-Both Raisi and Khamenei expressed their opposition to a fourth Turkish invasion multiple times, but also reiterated their support of the Turkish state against “terrorism.”
-Raisi stated to press: “We emphasized that the Syrian government must have control over all areas in the country.”
-Khamenei tweeted before the summit: “We consider the security of Turkey to be our security. You should also consider Syria’s security to be your own security. Syria’s issues should be settled through negotiations…” and “we will certainly cooperate with Turkey in fighting terrorism.”
Turkish state:
-Erdogan mentioned his aspirations for invasion, which was met with a no from both Raisi and Putin. Erdogan said afterward that the “military operations will continue,” but this is the same vague wordage he has used on a weekly basis for the past 3 years and not followed up on due to the Russian state’s unofficial no-fly zone.
Analysis:
Erdogan did not come close to any form of unanimous approval he was seeking and walked away with very limited concessions on Syria. Unless a deal was made under the table (which has happened before), the Russian state will continue to enact its unofficial no-fly zone over Rojava for the time being. The Russian Air Force has been actively deterring Turkish aerial threats over the past few months and as of now there is no sign that this will stop.
